基于造纸企业月度数据的行业能耗及节能潜力分析

Analysis of Energy Consumption and Energy Saving Potential Based on the Monthly Data of Enterprises in Paper Industry

关键词:  能耗  产量  节能潜力  灰色理论  BP神经网络

Key Words:energy consumption  yield  energy saving potential  grey theory  BP neural network

摘要:以某地区的造纸企业月度数据为基础,对该地区造纸工业按不同纸种进行能耗和产量的分析,并选用合适的指标通过灰色理论和BP神经网络构建组合预测模型,对2016年1—6月的能耗和产量进行了预测,同时根据企业月度数据以及预测数据分别对2015年全年和2016年1—6月该地区造纸工业的节能潜力做了分析和估算。结果表明，该地区瓦楞原纸的节能潜力较大，平均单位产品能耗水平波动较大。

Abstract:Based on the monthly data of the papermaking enterprises in a certain area, the paper analyzed the energy consumption and output of different kinds of paper in this area. The appropriate indicators were chosen to build a combined forecasting model through the gray theory and BP neural network, and the energy consumption and output in the first half of 2016 was forcasted. Finally according to the enterprise monthly data and forecast data, the energy-saving potentials in 2015 and the first half of 2016 were analyzed.